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To estimate a tax return in Ontario, work out your income tax for the year and compare it with the tax your employer already withheld. On a $52,000 salary the 2026 tax is $6,625.43, so $7,200 withheld means a $574.57 refund, while $6,300 withheld means you owe $325.43.
What does Ontario add to the federal tax?
There’s no separate Ontario form. One return covers federal and provincial tax, and the CRA collects both. Ontario’s part comes in three pieces: brackets, a surtax on higher amounts of Ontario tax, and a health premium.
The 2026 Ontario brackets on the CRA rates page start at 5.05% up to $53,891 of taxable income. From there they climb to 9.15%, 11.16%, 12.16% and 13.16% above $220,000, with the breaks at $107,785, $150,000 and $220,000. The data we checked puts the surtax at 20% on Ontario tax above $5,818 and a further 36% above $7,446.
The health premium tops out at $900 a year. It rises in steps with your income, and you pay it through the same return.
How much Ontario tax do different salaries pay?
Here’s the Ontario share alone, for employment income, from our income tax calculator. It includes the surtax and the health premium.
| Salary | Ontario tax |
|---|---|
| $30,000 | $1,054.74 |
| $50,000 | $2,288.18 |
| $70,000 | $3,855.73 |
| $100,000 | $6,722.75 |
| $150,000 | $14,608.45 |
| $250,000 | $34,160.89 |
Look at the jump from $100,000 to $150,000.
Ontario tax on $150,000 is about 2.2 times the tax on $100,000, for only 1.5 times the salary, and the surtax is the reason: once your basic Ontario tax passes the first threshold, every extra dollar of it costs 20% more, and past the second threshold it costs 36% more.
How do you compare tax with what was withheld?
Take box 14 of your T4 as income and box 22 as tax paid. Put them in the tax refund calculator with Ontario selected, and add any RRSP or child care deductions.
Say you earn $75,000 and your employer withheld $14,000. Our estimate of the tax is $12,704.65, so you get $1,295.35 back. Add a $5,000 RRSP deduction and the tax falls to $11,072.15, which lifts the refund to $2,927.85.
That $5,000 contribution returned $1,632.50, or 32.7 cents per dollar. Handy, but only if you can leave the money in the plan.
What does the estimate leave out?
Quite a bit. It counts the basic personal amount, the Canada employment amount and the CPP and EI credits. It leaves out benefits, refundable credits and most other claims.
The Ontario LIFT credit for low earners is not in it either. The credit does exist, but we couldn’t confirm 2026 amounts, so if you earn under about $50,000 your true refund may be a little higher. The tax credits calculator covers federal credits only.
Real life also adds slips. A T5 for interest, a T4A for a pension or a receipt for donations each change the answer, and none of them is a field in the estimate unless you fold the amounts into the other income box. Enter what you know. Expect a gap.
When is the money due or refunded?
For the 2025 return, filing and payment were due on 30 April 2026 for most people. Anyone with business income had until 15 June 2026 to file but still owed any balance by 30 April. We didn’t find the dates for the 2026 return yet.
If you owe every year, ask whether the withholding is too low. Instalments are one fix, and the tax instalments calculator shows the quarterly amounts.
Where do these numbers come from?
Rates and brackets come from the CRA’s page for the 2026 tax return. The refund rule comes from its line 48400 page, and the dates from its 2025 due date page. The surtax and health premium figures come from the payroll data we checked, and our tool is our own work. This website has no connection with the CRA or the province.
Frequently asked questions
How do I estimate my tax return in Ontario?
Work out your income tax for the year, then subtract the tax already withheld (T4 box 22). A positive difference is a refund.
Is the Ontario health premium included?
Yes, our estimate includes it. It is capped at $900 a year and is paid through your return.
Do RRSP contributions change the estimate?
Yes. On a $75,000 salary a $5,000 deduction lifts the refund from $1,295.35 to $2,927.85.
Why is my real refund different from the estimate?
Benefits, refundable credits, the Ontario LIFT credit and other slips such as a T5 are not counted.
When was the 2025 Ontario return due?
30 April 2026 for most people. Business owners could file by 15 June 2026 but still had to pay by 30 April.
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Information only. This page is general information, not tax, legal or accounting advice. Tax-Services.ca is an independent publisher: we don't prepare or file tax returns or offer tax services, and we have no connection with the CRA, Revenu Québec, any government or any company named on this page. Check the figures that matter with an official source or a qualified professional.