Updated Checked by the Tax-Services.ca editorial team How we check
To estimate my tax refund, you only need two numbers: the income tax already taken off your pay (box 22 on your T4) and the tax you actually owe for the year. Subtract the second from the first. If the answer is positive, that’s your refund.
How do I estimate my tax refund?
Start with the T4 from your employer. Box 22 shows the income tax withheld all year. Your employer guessed at your yearly tax with each paycheque, and the guess is usually close but rarely exact.
Then work out what you truly owe on your income after deductions and credits. That part is the hard bit, and it’s why a calculator helps. Our tax refund calculator takes your employment income, the tax withheld, any deductions and any other credit amounts, then does the subtraction for you.
Try it with real numbers. Say you earned $60,000 in Ontario and your T4 shows $9,500 withheld. The calculator puts your tax for the year at $8,320.50, so the estimated refund is $1,179.50. Change the withholding to $8,000 and you’d owe $320.50 instead.
What moves the number up or down?
Three things do most of the work. Deductions such as RRSP contributions lower your taxable income. Credits lower the tax itself. And how much your employer withheld sets the starting line.
| Change to the $60,000 example | Estimated result |
|---|---|
| $9,500 withheld, no deductions | Refund of $1,179.50 |
| $9,500 withheld, $5,000 deduction | Refund of $2,396.28 |
| $8,000 withheld, no deductions | Balance owing of $320.50 |
See that second row? A $5,000 deduction added about $1,217 to the refund. That’s the tax you’d have paid on the $5,000, at a combined rate near 24 per cent for that slice of income. If you’re planning contributions, the RRSP calculator shows how much of the deduction you can actually use.
Why does the real refund differ from an estimate?
An estimate is only as good as what you type in. Ours leaves out benefits and refundable credits, and the tool covers common cases, not every claim on the return. Medical expenses, tuition, moving costs and the disability amount can all change the result.
Two other things catch people out. The CRA can hold back a refund if you owe it money, or owe certain federal or provincial debts such as a student loan or an EI overpayment. It may also keep a refund of $2 or less. Both rules are on the CRA’s tax refunds page.
The other common miss is a second job. Each employer withholds as if that job were your only income, so two T4s often mean too little tax was taken off in total. Then your refund shrinks or turns into a bill. Add both T4s before you trust an estimate, and run your combined pay through the income tax calculator to see the whole tax for the year.
Picture Jordan, who waits tables on weekends and works a weekday retail job. Both employers treated the paycheque as the only one, so neither withheld enough. Jordan was expecting a refund and got a small bill instead. A quick estimate in March would have shown it.
When will the money arrive?
The CRA says a return filed electronically is usually processed, with any refund, within 2 weeks. Paper takes longer. Its refund page tells you to wait 12 weeks before contacting it if you live in Canada, and that’s for cases where something’s off.
For the 2025 return, the deadline to file was April 30, 2026, and June 15, 2026 for people with business income. Any balance owing was still due April 30. The 2026 dates hadn’t been published when we checked, so look at the CRA’s due dates page before you plan around them.
If your estimate shows a balance, the tax instalments calculator is worth a look, since it shows what instalments could look like.
What if my refund is late?
First check that you filed on time and that your direct deposit details and address are current. Then look at the progress of your return in your CRA account. If you filed electronically and the 12 weeks the CRA mentions have gone by, that’s when to call. Before then, the answer you’ll get is “please wait.”
Should you aim for a big refund?
Honestly, no.
A refund means you lent the government your money, interest free, for a year. The CRA pays interest on some refunds, but only after certain dates have passed, so a big refund is a poor savings plan.
A small refund or a small balance is the better result. If your estimate shows a large refund every year, ask your payroll department about lowering withholding, or use deductions you were leaving on the table.
Sources, and how we checked them
Our estimate uses the 2026 federal and Ontario rates and credits held in the calculator, checked against Canada Revenue Agency data. The timing, offset and deadline rules above come from the CRA’s pages on tax refunds and filing due dates. Your final assessment from the CRA is the only figure that counts.
Frequently asked questions
How do I estimate my tax refund by hand?
Take the income tax withheld on your T4 (box 22) and subtract the tax you owe for the year. A positive result is your refund.
Why is my refund smaller than the estimate?
Debts to the CRA or certain government programs can be taken from it, and a second job often means too little tax was withheld.
How long does a refund take?
The CRA says an electronically filed return is usually processed, refund included, within 2 weeks. Paper returns take longer.
Does the calculator include benefits?
No. It leaves out benefits and refundable credits, so your real result can differ.
Is a big refund good?
Not really. It means too much tax came off your pay during the year.
- How to file your tax return in Canada: steps and dates
What to gather, when your return is due and how to file in Canada, from the first slip to the notice of assessment that closes the year